3IBa, week 461COULD THE CUBAN CRISIS HAVE ESCALATED INTO WORLD WAR 3?
Some may argue that the head-to-head confrontation of the Super Powers during the Cuban Crisis was the result of serious miscalculation on the part of Khrushchev and recklessness on the part of Kennedy. Where these mistakes close to igniting a new world war, or was it just a test to see how fare that Soviets could push the US.
Some of the events significant in bringing about the Cuban Crisis was US' relation with both Cuba and the Soviet Union during this period. Still it might have been her reaction and attitude towards Fidel Castro's take-over of power in Cuba in January 1959 that lead to this crisis. The democratic US was afraid that if communism was introduced at Cuba, then it wouldn't be long until their democracy would be threatened. US had since the aided Cuba in her struggle for independence form it's colonial belonging to Spain supported the island economically as well as militarily, but Castro wanted this to change. He wanted to distribute Cuban land owned by American companies to his people, and thus nationalise the American-owned estates and factories, and get rid of the American influence.
This proved to be fatal; the result was a threat from president Eisenhower to stop importing Cuban sugar. Cuba's economy relied far too heavily on its sugar export to the US, and this gave a Soviet a chance to settle in the US back yard as she offered to buy the Cuban sugar. Khrushchev continued his good relation with Castro, and supported soon Cuba economically as well. The two became more and more closely bonded during the years to follow, and Cuba turned more and more over to communism.
In 1961 J.F. Kennedy was elected as United States' new precedent. Shortly after he had to make his first major decision: what to do with the Cuban situation. He went against all the advise hr was given, and made the decision to invade Cuba. The information on Kennedy's decision to invade Cuba, has recently taken a new turn, as microphones where newly found in his office. Bonds recorded at that time gives the world a whole new understanding of how close we were a third world war in those days. The expedition J.F. Kennedy ordered was called the "Pigs Bay incident". It was a mass invasion by Cuban refugees, that had been trained by the CIA in Guatemala, to demolish Castros communistic regime. The decision of invading Cuba showed the world that Kennedy was a bit reckless when dealing with foreign affairs, but he can be defended by the fact that he hadn't been involved in this affair from the start.
After the Pigs Bay expedition it was clearly shown that the Americans didn't want to accept a country that developed close relationship with a communist regime. When Castro later that year announced that he was a Marxist, the US realised the had to be aware of every new move Castro made. During 1962 Russia supplied Cuba with arms and military personnel, and then in October the same year American U2 planes spotted missile bases being built on Cuba - pointing towards the United States. When the missile bases where discovered, three alternatives where discussed. The three were bombing, invasion or embargement. At the same time the Soviet foreign minister assured the there neither was or would be placed any offensive weapons on Cuba. The US informed NATO, and the American people where informed through a press conference on the 22 October.
The first step the Americans took was to in-force an embargo on Cuba. The US demanded to inspect all ships entering and leaving Cuba, as well as an immediate stop on the construction of the missile bases. Ships that did not carry weapons where allowed to pass, but all (of those registered) carrying weapons were put on a hold, and after a while had to return to where they came from.
When foreign minister Stevenson confronted the Soviet ambassador on the issue and demanded a clear answer it was formulated like this: "Answer yes or no! Don't wait for to translator. If it's needed I'll wait till Hell freezes over!".
Late Friday the 26 of October the first of two letters arrived from Khrushchev. It stated the Soviet was willing to remove their offensive weapons from Cuba, under UN supervision, under the assurance of the embargo being abandoned and a invasion of Cuba would not be arranged. The next day another letter followed, where Khrushchev stating that Soviet would be willing to de-arm their missile bases on Cuba, if the US did the same with their bases in Turkey. Only the first of the two letters where answered. What made the situation even more tense on this Saturday was that an American U2 plane was shot down be a Soviet missile from Cuba.
On Sunday the 28 of October Khrushchev sent out the message that Soviet would withdraw it's offensive weapons from Cuba, and thus the most intense period of post war time was passed without a war breaking out.
Khrushchev tried his luck by placing the missiles at Cuba, he knew if they were discovered the US would kick up a row about it. The reason why he made the decision to put them here was due to the fact that a small communist country like Cuba needed protection towards the democratic states, and especially against the US - who was Cuba's closest neighbour. The missiles also meant safety for the Soviet Union, as the Americans had the missiles bases in Turkey which pointed towards Russia. Thirdly he wanted to try out Kennedy, he seemed inexperience in politics.
In resiant times the notes of Khrushchev have been closely studied, and he even admitted to his staff that this was not a wise move, but it had gone to far to be stopped and now had to be carried out. Either to the extent of war, or for one of the two superpowers to back down.
The world was very close to a third world war in the late October days in 1962. The US had planes with nuclear bombs in the air during the crisis, the Soviets had missiles with nuclear war heads ready to be sent of to the States on the second the leaders in Russia said "go!".
If the two superpowers had started a war, it would have to be a world covering one, as both had tight ties to their areas of interests. An other thing that must be considered is that if a war had been started, who would survive? Both countries had enough weapons to destroy the world many times over, and that meant destroying their own ground as well It would be like sitting on a branch and sawing it of close to the stem.
I thus do not believe the Cuban crises could have escalated into a world war, as to total destruction would be a gain to non of the two powers, and who would want to kill all its population for now glory and advances in the future, as the future would not exist?
Forside
